In the days and hours leading up to the earliest returns, the 85 percent figure was featured heavily in Times news coverage and on the home page. That prediction was based on the Times’s internal aggregation of all the credible polls heading into the homestretch of the race. On November 8, 2016, the Times’s pre-election data initially showed Hillary Clinton with an 85 percent chance of victory. Clinton, is a symbol of the speed with which political hopes can be upended, as well as the maddening uncertainty of polling-and liberals are still deeply haunted by it. “TOO SCARY EMILY,” agreed journalist Lauren Duca. “That’s gonna trigger Brooklyn,” CNN’s Jake Tapper replied. On a large piece of white cardboard dangling from her neck with string, Nussbaum had drawn a picture of The New York Times’s election needle, an interactive feature that famously traumatized Times readers. Davis, Kennedy Elliott, Amy Hughes, Ben Koski, Allison McCartney and Karen Workman.It was right before Halloween, with Election Day a little more than a week away, and Emily Nussbaum, The New Yorker’s television critic, “made the scariest costume I could think of,” she tweeted. David Goodman, Blake Hounshell, Shawn Hubler, Annie Karni, Maya King, Stephanie Lai, Lisa Lerer, Jonathan Martin, Patricia Mazzei, Alyce McFadden, Jennifer Medina, Azi Paybarah, Mitch Smith, Tracey Tully, Jazmine Ulloa, Neil Vigdor and Jonathan Weisman production by Andy Chen, Amanda Cordero, Alex Garces, Chris Kahley, Laura Kaltman, Andrew Rodriguez and Jessica White editing by Wilson Andrews, Kenan Davis, William P. Epstein, Nicholas Fandos, Lalena Fisher, Trip Gabriel, Katie Glueck, J. Bender, Sarah Borell, Sarah Cahalan, Emily Cochrane, Nick Corasaniti, Jill Cowan, Catie Edmondson, Reid J. Reporting by Grace Ashford, Maggie Astor, Michael C. Lee, Vivian Li, Rebecca Lieberman, Ilana Marcus, Alicia Parlapiano, Jaymin Patel, Marcus Payadue, Matt Ruby, Rachel Shorey, Charlie Smart, Umi Syam, Jaime Tanner, James Thomas, Urvashi Uberoy, Ege Uz, Isaac White and Christine Zhang. The Times’s election results pages are produced by Michael Andre, Aliza Aufrichtig, Kristen Bayrakdarian, Neil Berg, Matthew Bloch, Véronique Brossier, Irineo Cabreros, Sean Catangui, Andrew Chavez, Nate Cohn, Lindsey Rogers Cook, Alastair Coote, Annie Daniel, Saurabh Datar, Avery Dews, Asmaa Elkeurti, Tiffany Fehr, Andrew Fischer, Lazaro Gamio, Martín González Gómez, Will Houp, Jon Huang, Samuel Jacoby, Jason Kao, Josh Katz, Aaron Krolik, Jasmine C. 2020 comparison maps exclude places where third-party candidates won more than 5 percent of the vote. The Associated Press also provides estimates for the share of votes reported, which are shown for races for which The Times does not publish its own estimates. These are only estimates, and they may not be informed by reports from election officials. The Times estimates the share of votes reported and the number of remaining votes, based on historic turnout data and reporting from results providers. Source: Election results and race calls are from The Associated Press.
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